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SYSTEMS
ARCHIVE
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Topweights
System
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A
profitable system which involves betting to win on topweights in
all NH handicap races run over a trip of less than 3 miles on a
tight track (for a list of tight tracks please refer to the NH
Track Matrix)
Results
to £100 win level stakes:
163
Bets
Profit
£5,922
To
5 point win bets: Profit +296.10 pts
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System
1: Speed Horse
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Rules:
Calculate
the top speed horse of the day from Dave Edwards' Topspeed page
on the Racing Post site (UK meetings only).
The
top speed horse is selected by adding each horse's highest
overall rating (last 12 months) to its most recent rating, then
dividing by two.
In
the event of a tie, the selection will have the best finishing
position on its last run. If there is still a tie there is no
bet.
Staking:
Stake
1pt for each full 10pts the selection achieves (e.g. a horse
with a score of 65 will carry a stake of 6pts). Maximum stake is
10pts.
Logic:
These
speed ratings are very good for those who haven't time to
calculate their own, and the horse with the highest combined
total of the day should be expected to go well, as we are
considering its most recent run as well as its best in the last
12 months.
Results
based on 50 bets:
Total
stakes: 191 pts
Total
returns: 222.32 pts
Profit
+31.32 pts
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System
2: Unnamed Favourites
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Rules:
Find
the race with the lowest prize money for the winner (UK meetings
only).
Bet
the favourite to win, but without naming it.
Staking:
5
pts to win on each day's selected race.
In
the unlikely event of there being more than one race carrying
the lowest winning prize, stake 5 pts to win on each.
Logic:
Following
the market can be misleading in high value and high profile
races. The shrewd money is often masked by uneducated money.
That
is not the case in low value races, which are mainly ignored by
amateur punters. Following the market in these races tends to be
more reliable.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 229.66 pts
Loss
20.34 pts
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System
3: Recovery Mission
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Rules:
Bet
any horse to win that was a beaten favourite on its latest run
(within the last 50 days), provided that it is being ridden by
the top jockey at today's track.
The
top jockey for this purpose is defined as the one (of those
riding today) with the most course winners over the last 5
seasons (as given in the Racing Post) - should there be two
jockeys with the same total, there is no bet for that meeting.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
In
the unlikely event of there being equal 'top jockeys' for a
particular course, there will be no bets at that course for that
day.
Logic:
Having
been expected to win on its last outing but failing to do so, a
horse is now being partnered by the leading jockey at today's
track in an attempt to recover previous losses.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 231.57 pts
Loss
18.43 pts
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System
4: Classy 3yo Handicappers
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Rules:
In
any 3yo handicap race, work down the racecard from the top, and
bet the first horse you come to which was placed first, second
or third on its last run.
In
the event of there being no qualifier by the time you are
halfway down the card there is no bet.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
3yos
at the top of the handicap are improving horses (as opposed to
older topweights who may be declining, but are still at the top
based on what they did a long time ago). We have already shown
that the effect of weight is grossly overstated in most cases,
so the official handicapper has saved us a lot of form study by
telling us the best horses. We then just need to look for
confirmation of current form.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 308.13 pts
Profit
+58.13 pts
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System
5: Horses for Distances
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Rules:
In
any race, bet a horse if it is the only previous winner over
today's distance, provided that it is also one of the first
three named in the Racing Post betting forecast.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Horses
are very susceptible to changes in distance. They may not
perform at their best with even a slight increase or decrease in
the distance they have to run. If there is only one horse that
has previously won over today's distance it may well hold a big
advantage over the others.
More
than half of all winners are in the first three named in the
Racing Post betting forecast, so this qualifying factor
eliminates no-hopers whose distance win may have been a long
time ago, or in a very low grade.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets):
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 516.96 pts
Profit
+16.96 pts
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System
6: Recent Winners
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Rules:
On
any day, select the horse which has the least number of days
since its last win.
If
there is more than one qualifier in different races on the same
day, they are all bet equally to win.
If
there is more than one qualifier in the same race, the race will
be ignored.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
Horses
which are in top form are often likely to follow up a recent
win. They are sometimes entered again quickly to avoid big
penalties from the handicapper. They are often horses that
thrive on quick reappearances, and once they hit form are
difficult to stop whilst in the same mood.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets):
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 759.28 pts
Profit
+259.28 pts
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System
7: Against the Short Prices
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Rules:
In
any race where the Racing Post predict an odds-on favourite, bet
the second-named horse in their betting forecast.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5
pts to win on each selection.
Logic:
Short-priced
favourites win less often than they are given credit for, and as
a betting medium they offer little value in general terms. The
true value in the race often lies with the runner which appears
to hold the highest realistic chance of the remainder.
Results
based on 5pt wins (52 bets)
Total
stakes: 260 pts
Total
returns: 169.42 pts
Loss
90.58 pts
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System
8: Big Concessions
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Rules:
In
handicap races only, select the horse that is giving the biggest
weight concession of the day (the largest weight differential
between a top and a second-top weight). Should there be joint
qualifiers there will be a bet on each.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
to win on each selection.
Logic:
The
horse at the top of the handicap is officially rated as being the
best horse in the race. Therefore, the horse giving the biggest
weight concession is also the horse with the biggest class
advantage.
Having
already proved that the effect of weight is often overstated, the
class advantage can often prove more effective than the penalty.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 108.42 pts
Loss
141.58 pts
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System
9: Each-Way Value
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Rules:
In
any race with 5 declared runners, place an each-way bet on the
second-named horse in the Racing Post betting forecast.
In
cases where a subsequent non-runner is declared the bet stands as
win-only for system purposes (this provision is made on the basis
that bets are often placed early in the day).
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
each-way on each selection.
Logic:
As
a general rule, I don't advocate each-way betting.
A
carefully researched 20/1 shot is only equivalent to a 6/4 winner
when placed second or third in an 8-runner race, giving very poor
value (a 1pt e/w stake would return 5pts at a fifth odds, making it
equal to a 6/4 win).
Contrary
to popular belief, the best value for each-way backers is found in
races of 5 runners, where the return for a place is a quarter odds.
Importantly too, the two places in a 5-runner event account for 40%
of the total (only 37.5% for the 1-2-3 in an 8-runner race and a
poor 25% or less in races of 16+).
Not
generally understood, also, is the fact that each-way betting is
more effective at lower prices. The missed profit on winning long
shots is never compensated by the poor place returns for those that
are narrowly beaten - big prices are always better backed as
win-only in the long term.
In
races of 5 runners, the each-way value is often found with the
second horse in the betting forecast. It holds a realistic chance of
winning, whilst also being expected to beat the other three home,
thus saving well over 50% of the total outlay when beaten into
second place.
Results
based on 5pt e/w (54 bets):
Total
stakes: 540 pts
Total
returns: 586.98 pts
Profit
+46.98 pts
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System
10: Tactical Rides
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Rules:
1.
Find the race with the least number of runners of the day.
2.
Bet the horse which is to be ridden by the jockey with the most
winning rides at the track in the last 5 years (of those riding
in the race).
3.
In cases where two jockeys have ridden the same number of
winners there is no bet.
4.
On days where more than one race has the least runners there is
a bet in each of those races.
5.
System applies to all UK races.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
Jockeys
who have proven knowledge and ability on a specific track tend
to have an advantage over those who haven't. This is even more
apparent in small fields, where races often turn out to be
tactical affairs.
I
opt for the number of winners a jockey has ridden on the track
in preference to strike rate, which can often be misleading -
especially when a low number of qualifying rides is evident.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 273.88 pts
Profit
+23.88 pts
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System
11: Long Travellers
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Rules:
Bet
the horse travelling the longest distance of the day, provided
that there is only one qualifier. If the longest trip of the day
is being made by more than one horse there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
Horses
don't normally travel alone for extreme distances unless they are
thought to have a reasonable chance of success. Sometimes, when a
stable or training centre already have a few representatives
making the trip it isn't a hardship to include one or two more,
but sole representatives on long journeys tend to be on a mission.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 303.36 pts
Profit
+53.36 pts
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System
12: Cheekpieces
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Rules:
Bet
the shortest-priced horse (Racing Post tissue prices) that is
wearing cheekpieces for the first time. If there is more than one
qualifier bet them equally, unless they are in the same race in
which case there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
As
opposed to first-time blinkers and visors, which aren't as
effective as they are on the second wearing due to many horses
running too keenly on first application, cheekpieces, an
increasingly popular form of headgear, tend to have a more
positive effect the first time they are worn.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 118.75 pts
Loss
131.25 pts
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System
13: Stamina Specialists
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Rules:
Look
for the race to be run over the longest distance of the day. If
more than one are joint-longest, consider all qualifying races
together.
Using
Racing Post tissue prices, bet the shortest-priced horse that is a
previous distance winner. If more than one qualifier there is no
bet. If there are no previous distance winners in the longest or
joint-longest races there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
With
extra emphasis on stamina, the ability of a horse to get the trip
is more important than at shorter distances.
Previous
distance scorers have already proved their stamina, and their
advantage is magnified at longer trips. They are often able to
outstay classier opponents who are being upped in distance.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets):
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 167.42 pts
Loss
82.58 pts
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System
14: Hat Trick Attempts
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that has won its last two races, provided that it is not
racing in a higher grade than for its last win. If there are any
other runners in the same race that have won their last two or
more races there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
The
vast majority of horses never win a race of any kind in their
lives, so the completion of a hat trick of successes is seen as a
fine achievement. That being the case, preparation for the hat
trick bid is thorough, and the confidence that winning brings adds
further to the chances of the horse, especially if there is no
hike in class and there are no opponents in a similar run of form.
Results
based on 5pt wins (53 bets):
Total
stakes: 265 pts
Total
returns: 118.16 pts
Loss
146.84 pts
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System
15: Last Year's Winner
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Rules:
Bet
any horse (flat or NH) that won the corresponding race last year.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
The
most conclusive proof that a horse is suited by the conditions of
a race lies in the fact that it won the same event the previous
year.
Granted
that there may be certain variances the second time around, such
as ground conditions, draw, jockey etc, but the horse has already
shown a definite suitability to the three most important
considerations: class, track, and distance.
Horses
that won a race the previous year are often trained specifically
with the same race in mind the following season.
Results
based on 5pt wins (52 bets)
Total
stakes: 260 pts
Total
returns: 162.58 pts
Loss
97.42 pts
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System
16: The CD System
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that is the sole previous course and distance (CD)
winner in the race, provided there are no other previous course
winners in the line-up.
Course
winners over other trips do not qualify, even though they may also
have won over today's trip on a different track.
System
applies to both flat and NH racing.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
This
was the original 'cdsystem' from which the present site was built
in May 2000. The logic behind it is fairly obvious, in that many
horses have their favourite tracks as well as having an optimum
distance. If a horse is the only one in the race to have won over
today's course and distance it basically has much less to prove
than its rivals in that respect.
Obviously
there are other important form criteria, such as the class of the
race and the ground conditions, but the essence of this series of
systems is simplicity, and it is often the fact that horses are
unfancied due to other criteria but are selected because they
comply with a simple system that means it can find the bigger
prices that more scrupulous study would often dismiss.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 540.47 pts
Profit
+40.47 pts
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System
17: In-form Distance Winners
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that won its last race, provided that the win came
within the last ten days, and provided that it has also previously
won over the distance of today's race.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to both flat and NH racing.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
This
system plays on the advantages of in-form horses which were very
successfully highlighted in System 6 (Recent Winners), but with
the additional option of being able to use more than one selection
in any one racing day if appropriate.
The
qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should
restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also
ensuring that today's trip is suitable for the already in-form
runners.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 596.14 pts
Profit
+96.14 pts
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System
18: Beaten Favourites After A Rest
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Rules:
Bet
any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided
that it has a had a break of more than 30 days since then, and
also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.
Ignore
any race in which there is more than one qualifier.
System
applies to both flat and NH racing.
System
applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts
win on each selection.
Logic:
Having
been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a
horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested
with a view to gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and
suitable event, and when fit and ready to do so.
This
is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into
attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be
ideal.
The
qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should
restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also
ensuring that today's trip is suitable.
Results
based on 5pt wins (51 bets)
Total
stakes: 255 pts
Total
returns: 255.25 pts
Profit
+0.25 pts
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System 19: First-time Blinkers on Handicap Debut
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Rules:
Bet any horse that is wearing
blinkers for the first time in its career when the race also happens
to be its handicap debut.
For the purpose of
this method, handicap debut is taken to mean the horse's first run in
a handicap of the type in which it is entered today (either turf flat,
a/w flat, chase or hurdles).
System doesn't apply to any
other form of headgear.
Ignore races in which there is
more than one qualifier.
System applies to both flat and
NH racing.
System applies to UK races only.
Staking:
5pts win on each selection.
Logic:
It is common practice for some trainers
to run horses under less than optimum conditions in races which qualify
them for a handicap mark. Having achieved a competitive rating for the
horse the trainer is then faced with the task of taking advantage of
it. He will attempt to do that by selecting the ideal conditions for his
runner, in terms of track type, distance and ground.
It is a fact that blinkers, more often than not,
work better on subsequent applications
than they do the first time. However, on the occasions that they do enhance a performance on
their first application the results can be
spectacular. A generous rating for a handicap debut and an ideal set of
conditions can further enhance the effect of first-time blinkers on
the occasions that they do provide this spectacular improvement.
Results
based on 5pt wins (50 bets)
Total
stakes: 250 pts
Total
returns: 0 pts
Loss:
250 pts
Comment:
the way the trialled horses ran under this set of conditions (only two
were placed) makes this
method ideal for laying purposes.
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System
20: Tipster Trend Reversal
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Rules:
In
the Racing Post Naps Competition bet the nap provided by the
tipster with the longest current losing sequence.
If
there is more than one qualifier there is no bet.
As
many press tipsters do not operate on Sundays the system will
operate from Monday to Saturday inclusive.
Staking:
Stake
5 points to win on each selection.
Logic:
On
the basis that the livelihood of these press correspondents is
ultimately dependant on the results they produce, long losing
sequences can hardly be beneficial to them or to their
newspaper.
Tipsters
on a current winning run can afford to take chances they may not
otherwise contemplate, whilst the main objective of a tipster on
a long losing sequence is primarily to end it.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 524.08 pts
Profit:
24.08 pts
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System
Trial 21: Favourites
In Big Fields
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Rules:
Each
day select the non-handicap race with the most runners.
Bet
the favourite to win, but without naming it.
If
there are two or more qualifying races there is no bet.
System
applies to UK races only.
System
applies to both flat and NH races.
Once
the qualifying bet is published it will stand regardless of any
late non-runners, either in the same race or in any other.
Staking:
Stake
5 points to win on each selection.
Logic:
There
is an old saying: 'the bigger the field the better the
favourite' and, as in all old proverbs, there is an element of
substance to it - this trial will hopefully prove just how much.
Races
with more runners tend to be truly-run affairs, as opposed to
those with small fields which often provide no early pace and no
cover for the runners that need it.
Races
with big fields are also much less competitive, on many
occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many
runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies
much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is
based.
Results
based on 5pt wins (100 bets)
Total
stakes: 500 pts
Total
returns: 482.29 pts
Loss:
17.71 pts
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System
Trial 22: The Benefit of Previous Experience
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Rules:
In
races where more than half the field is unraced, bet the
shortest-priced runner with previous experience.
For
price comparison use Racing Post tissues.
If
there is more than on qualifier in a race there is no bet for
that race.
System
applies to UK flat races only (not NH flat).
Staking:
Stake
5 points to win on each selection.
Logic:
The
benefit of previous experience is often understated in the
betting market. A less talented runner with experience can often
beat a more illustrious newcomer who is making its first visit
to the racetrack, even though the more talented rival will
eventually develop into a much better prospect.
No
matter how well a newcomer has been performing at home, there is
no guarantee that its promise will be fulfilled when it
encounters the hustle and bustle of a race day for the first
time.
A
runner that has seen it all before is much more likely to show
its true form or to improve on what it has already shown.
Results
based on 5pt wins (101 bets)
Total
stakes: 505 pts
Total
returns: 642.03 pts
Profit:
137.03 pts
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©
2000 - 2005 Professional Betting Advice and Strategy from cdsystems.
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Professional
Betting
Portfolio
by
Steve Jones
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WINNER:
OUTSTANDING
CONTRIBUTION
TO
TIPPING 2018
Awarded
by
Smart
Betting Club
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BEST
HORSE
RACING
TIPSTER:
2013
Silver Award
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BEST
OVERALL
TIPSTER:
2013
Bronze Award
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As
voted by
members
of
Smart
Betting Club
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SEE
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SMART
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